Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018

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HAEUSER, Emily, SERFES, Audrey L., CORK, Michael A., YANG, Mingyou, ABBASTABAR, Hedayat, ABHILASH, E. S., ADABI, Maryam, ADEBAYO, Oladimeji M., ADEKANMBI, Victor, ADEYINKA, Daniel Adedayo, AFZAL, Saira, AHINKORAH, Bright Opoku, AHMADI, Keivan, AHMED, Muktar Beshir, AKALU, Yonas, AKINYEMI, Rufus Olusola, AKUNNA, Chisom Joyqueenet, ALAHDAB, Fares, ALANEZI, Fahad Mashhour, ALANZI, Turki M., ALENE, Kefyalew Addis, ALHASSAN, Robert Kaba, ALIPOUR, Vahid, ALMASI-HASHIANI, Amir, ALVIS-GUZMAN, Nelson, AMEYAW, Edward Kwabena, AMINI, Saeed, AMUGSI, Dickson A., ANCUCEANU, Robert, ANVARI, Davood, APPIAH, Seth Christopher Yaw, ARABLOO, Jalal, AREMU, Olatunde, ASEMAHAGN, Mulusew A., JAFARABADI, Mohammad Asghari, AWEDEW, Atalel Fentahun, QUINTANILLA, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, AYANORE, Martin Amogre, AYNALEM, Yared Asmare, AZARI, Samad, AZENE, Zelalem Nigussie, DARSHAN, B. 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Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018. BMC Medicine, 20 (1): 488. [Article]

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Abstract

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

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** From Springer Nature via Jisc Publications Router ** Licence for this article: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ** Acknowledgements: Acknowledgements: LBD sub-Saharan Africa HIV Prevalence Collaborators S Afzal acknowledges support of the Pakistan Society of Medical Infectious Diseases and King Edward Medical University to access the relevant data of HIV from various sources. T W Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), I.P., in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences - UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy - i4HB; FCT/MCTES (Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior) through the project UIDB/50006/2020. K Deribe acknowledges support by the Wellcome Trust [grant number 201900/Z/16/Z] as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. C Herteliu and A Pana are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. Claudiu Herteliu is partially supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Research Innovation and Digitalization, MCID, project number ID-585-CTR-42-PFE-2021. Y J Kim acknowledges support by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia [No. XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004]. S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknowledges institutional support by the Manipal Academy of Higher Education. K Krishan acknowledges non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar would like to acknowledge NIH/FIC K43 TW010716-04. I Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT), Panama. V Nuñez-Samudio is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SNI), which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (SENACYT). O O Odukoya was supported by the Fogarty International Center of the National Institutes of Health under the Award Number K43TW010704. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Z Quazi Syed acknowledges support from JNMC, Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences. A I Ribeiro was supported by National Funds through FCT, under the ‘Stimulus of Scientific Employment – Individual Support’ program within the contract CEECIND/02386/2018. A M Samy acknowledges the support from a fellowship of the Egyptian Fulbright Mission program and Ain Shams University. R Shrestha acknowledges support from NIDA K01 Award: K01DA051346. N Taveira acknowledges support from FCT and Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) - Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese speaking countries in Africa (project reference: 332821690), and by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), UE (project reference: RIA2016MC-1615). B Unnikrishnan acknowledges support from Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. **Journal IDs: eissn 1741-7015 **Article IDs: publisher-id: s12916-022-02639-z; manuscript: 2639 **History: online 19-12-2022; published 19-12-2022; collection 12-2022; accepted 26-10-2022; registration 26-10-2022; submitted 26-04-2022

Uncontrolled Keywords:

Research Article, HIV, Mapping, Africa, Geostatistics, Spatial statistics, HIV prevalence, Demographics

Identifiers

Identification Number:

10.1186/s12916-022-02639-z

ORCID:

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8755-3964