A Data-Driven Framework for Assessing the Impact of Economic Sanctions on Supply Chain Operations: Evidence from Iran’s Private Medical Equipment Sector

Economic sanctions are increasingly employed as instruments of international policy, yet their consequences often extend far beyond political objectives. In the case of Iran, repeated waves of sanctions have generated widespread economic and social repercussions, with the healthcare sector being one of the most severely affected. While previous studies have concentrated on pharmaceuticals and public hospitals, limited attention has been paid to the private medical equipment sector, despite its essential role in sustaining healthcare delivery. This study investigates the impact of sanctions on the efficiency and effectiveness of supply chain operations in this sector. A quantitative, cross-sectional survey was conducted among 120 managers and specialists from 50 private medical equipment companies. Data were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) implemented in SmartPLS 3.0, evaluating both measurement and structural models to ensure reliability and validity. Findings reveal that sanctions significantly disrupt procurement, logistics, and financial transactions, increasing costs, delaying supplies, and restricting access to international banking systems. The model explains 57.6% of the variance in supply chain performance, with robust validity and reliability indicators. The study contributes theoretically by integrating Transaction Cost Economics, Resource Dependence Theory, and Institutional Theory, and practically by offering strategies for resilience, including diversification, localised production, and digital supply chain monitoring.