BELLOUIN, Nicolas, DAVIES, Will, SHINE, Keith P, QUAAS, Johannes, MUELMENSTAEDT, Johannes, FORSTER, Piers M, SMITH, Chris, LEE, Lindsay, REGAYRE, Leighton, BRASSEUR, Guy, SUDARCHIKOVA, Natalia, BOUARAR, Idir, BOUCHER, Olivier and MYHRE, Gunnar (2020). Radiative forcing of climate change from the Copernicus reanalysis of atmospheric composition. Earth System Science Data, 12 (3), 1649-1677.
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Lee_RadiativeForcingClimate(VoR).pdf - Published Version
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Abstract
<jats:p>Abstract. Radiative forcing provides an important basis for understanding
and predicting global climate changes, but its quantification has
historically been done independently for different forcing agents, has involved
observations to varying degrees, and studies have not always included a
detailed analysis of uncertainties. The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring
Service reanalysis is an optimal combination of modelling and observations
of atmospheric composition. It provides a unique opportunity to rely on
observations to quantify the monthly and spatially resolved global
distributions of radiative forcing consistently for six of the largest
forcing agents: carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, stratospheric
ozone, aerosol–radiation interactions, and aerosol–cloud interactions. These
radiative-forcing estimates account for adjustments in stratospheric
temperatures but do not account for rapid adjustments in the troposphere.
On a global average and over the period 2003–2017, stratospherically
adjusted radiative forcing of carbon dioxide has averaged +1.89 W m−2
(5 %–95 % confidence interval: 1.50 to 2.29 W m−2) relative to 1750 and
increased at a rate of 18 % per decade. The corresponding values for
methane are +0.46 (0.36 to 0.56) W m−2 and 4 % per decade but with
a clear acceleration since 2007. Ozone radiative-forcing averages +0.32 (0
to 0.64) W m−2, almost entirely contributed by tropospheric ozone since
stratospheric ozone radiative forcing is only +0.003 W m−2. Aerosol
radiative-forcing averages −1.25 (−1.98 to −0.52) W m−2,
with aerosol–radiation interactions contributing −0.56 W m−2 and
aerosol–cloud interactions contributing −0.69 W m−2 to the global
average. Both have been relatively stable since 2003. Taking the six forcing
agents together, there is no indication of a sustained slowdown or acceleration
in the rate of increase in anthropogenic radiative forcing over the period.
These ongoing radiative-forcing estimates will monitor the impact on the
Earth's energy budget of the dramatic emission reductions towards net-zero
that are needed to limit surface temperature warming to the Paris Agreement
temperature targets. Indeed, such impacts should be clearly manifested in
radiative forcing before being clear in the temperature record. In addition,
this radiative-forcing dataset can provide the input distributions needed by
researchers involved in monitoring of climate change, detection and
attribution, interannual to decadal prediction, and integrated assessment
modelling. The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.24380/ads.1hj3y896 (Bellouin et al., 2020b).
</jats:p>
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