A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment

Our original paper “The determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment” was the first theoretically based empirical analysis of the phenomenon. It utilised internalisation theory to show that Chinese state-owned firms reacted to home country market imperfections to surmount barriers to foreign entry arising from naivety and the lack of obvious ownership advantages, leveraging institutional factors including favourable policy stimuli. This special theory explained outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) but provided surprises. These included the apparent appetite for risk evinced by these early investors, causing us to conjecture that domestic market imperfections, particularly in the domestic capital market, might be responsible. The article stimulated a massive subsequent, largely successful, research effort on emerging country multinationals. In this Retrospective article we review some of the main strands of research that ensued, for the insight they offer for the theme of our commentary. Our theme is that theoretical development can only come through embracing yet more challenging, different, and new contexts, and we make suggestions for future research directions.