Addressing opposition quality in basketball performance evaluation

The aim of this research was twofold: (i) to explain the relationships between basketball indicators and opposition quality; and (ii) to utilise regression models in the evaluation of basketball team performances that account for opposition quality. Opposition quality was represented in absolute terms without considering a team’s own quality (OQ) and relative terms as the difference between the quality of a team and their opponents (RQ). Game-related indicators of all the 92 games of the Basketball World Cup 2019 were analysed. Regression analysis was used to model performance indicators in terms of OQ and RQ. Correlations between opposition quality and basketball indicators were statistically low in both terms. However, higher correlations were found between assists, two-point field goal accuracy, defensive rebounds and RQ. Two-point field goal attempts (2 PA) exhibited a negative relationship considering opposition quality. Most of the variables showed higher correlations with RQ than OQ. Offensive rebounds and personal fouls were influenced more by OQ than by RQ. Subsequently, teams over-performing or under-performing when addressing opposition quality could be recognised. This allowed trends in performance and consistency of performance to be evaluated. Evaluation scores were more consistent in absolute terms rather than relative terms.