Advanced mathematical model for prediction of sand production rate: A Niger-delta case-study

The Tertiary Niger Delta Basin is dominated by a friable, loosely consolidated sandstone formations indicating the likelihood of sand production ocuuring during hydrocarbon production in such formations. The aim of this study was to develop a simple mechanistic model for predicting sand production rate (SPR) in Niger-Delta wells. Two basic criteria (static sanding criteria and the dynamic requirement for fluidization of the produced sand) were used in developing this model. A generic mechanistic model that incorporates the concept of dimensionless quantities associated with sand prediction was developed. In developing the model, loading factor, Reynolds Number, water cut and gas-liquid ratio, GLR were considered. A dimensionless sand production rate (SPR) correlation index was the output from the proposed model. Results indicated that every reservoir has a unique SPR correlation index which represents its propensity to produce sand or its sanding identity. Validation of the proposed model was conducted by comparing the model prediction results with field data. Model validation results showed an agreement between predicted with field results with an acceptable maximum deviation of less than 5% in for onshore wells. The proposed model was further compared to existing models and prediction results show that the proposed model gave better results than others especially when the boost factor, GLR is significantly high. The applications of this study range from field development plans and economics to reservoir management, down to general well completion design and strategies.