Addressing uncertainty during early stage frontier exploration: bringing regional context to basin modelling

During the early stages of exploration, uncertainties regarding the nature and presence of a petroleum system are significant. The potential risk on charge conditions is typically a key factor in frontier exploration; charge has been a common cause of wildcat well failure in recent years (e.g., Rabat Deep, Morocco and Maria-1, Black Sea). The ability to assess charge risk when even basic geological conditions are poorly understood is therefore a crucial first step in increasing exploration success. Basin modelling is an essential tool for evaluating and quantifying charge timing, phase and volume, and allows the impact of uncertainty to be investigated through sensitivity analysis. However, during the early stages of frontier exploration, there is typically little data available to unequivocally constrain stratigraphic predictions and thermal conditions in subsurface models.