System dynamics modelling for human resource planning.

The research undertaken in this thesis concerns the application of system dynamics to the field of Human Resource Planning (HRP). Human resource planning has been defined as the process whereby a company develops and deploys the right staff at the right places, at the right times to fulfil both organization and individual objectives. In this process staff are recruited and trained before they can contribute to an organisation's goals. Recruitment and training of new staff needs to be carefully planned to prevent staff shortages or staff surpluses. Such planning, in turn, very often makes use of models, and the aim of this research is to show that the application of system dynamics can be used to produce effective models for use in human resource planning. The models developed build on the Inventory and Order Based Production Control Systems (IOBPCS) work of Towill (1982) and extend the work of Hafeez (2000), who applied these IOBPCS ideas to skill pool modelling in human resource management. The models developed in this thesis provide companies with the means of producing optimum HRP strategies. In total four new models are developed: SKPM (basic Skill Pool Model), APSKPM (Automated Pipeline Skill Pool Model), APSKPM+(P+I), (Automated Pipeline Skill Pool Model plus Proportional and Integral controller), and a PPSKPM (Progression and Promotion Skill Pool Model). In each case the models are developed in terms of control parameters that relate to aspects of the human resource planning process that can be controlled by the human resource manager or decision maker. Using computer simulation the dynamic behaviour of the human resource systems represented by the models is determined over time for any given set of control parameters. By varying the parameters in a systematic way optimal models are produced to aid the decision maker. Any set of parameters represents an HRP strategy and, by using simulation, system dynamics can be seen to furnish optimal human resource planning policies for the decision maker. In the thesis the models are systematically tested with real data relating to the Libyan petrochemical industry. Data from two case companies are used in this testing. The case-company testing demonstrates that system dynamics can be used to create effective models for use in human resource planning and shows also the same relationship between control parameters that was found in the work of Towill and Hafeez.