The transition to a highly qualified workforce

BOSWORTH, Derek, JONES, Paul and WILSON, Rob (2008). The transition to a highly qualified workforce. Education Economics, 16 (2), 127-147.

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Link to published version:: 10.1080/09645290701306341


Globalization is putting increasing pressure on jobs in the United Kingdom, particularly among less skilled activities. The European response through the Lisbon Strategy has been diffuse, while UK policy appears much more focused, concentrating on the need to raise education and skill levels. The present paper examines the transition towards a more highly qualified workforce in the United Kingdom, including an assessment of probable future developments given recent trends towards greater participation in higher education. It describes two complementary forecasting exercises, whereby a stock‐flow model is used to produce UK‐wide estimates and, then, a multi‐logit equation is used to disaggregate these forecasts by region. The result is a set of estimates of the likely developments in the pattern of qualification attainment across the different parts of the United Kingdom, running through to 2014. It focuses upon the numbers of individuals broken down by level of qualification, gender, age and region. These forecasts suggest that, based on past trends (and consistent with meeting government targets), there will be substantial increases in the numbers and proportions of more qualified individuals and corresponding reductions among the less qualified. Further policy initiatives that may result from the Leitch Review are likely to further accentuate these changes.

Item Type: Article
Research Institute, Centre or Group: Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research
Identification Number: 10.1080/09645290701306341
Depositing User: Hilary Ridgway
Date Deposited: 24 Feb 2012 09:34
Last Modified: 10 Dec 2013 16:31

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