Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

CARSLAW, K.S., LEE, Lindsay, REDDINGTON, C.L., PRINGLE, K.J., RAP, A., FORSTER, P.M., MANN, G.W., SPRACKLEN, D.V., WOODHOUSE, M.T., REGAYRE, L.A. and PIERCE, J.R. (2013). Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing. Nature, 503 (7474), 67-71.

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Abstract

The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Aerosols; Climate; Greenhouse Effect; History, 18th Century; History, 19th Century; History, 20th Century; History, 21st Century; Human Activities; Models, Theoretical; Sulfides; Sulfur Dioxide; Uncertainty; Volcanic Eruptions; Sulfides; Sulfur Dioxide; Aerosols; Uncertainty; Greenhouse Effect; Climate; Models, Theoretical; Human Activities; History, 18th Century; History, 19th Century; History, 20th Century; History, 21st Century; Volcanic Eruptions; General Science & Technology
Identification Number:	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12674
Page Range:	67-71
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Elements
Depositing User:	Symplectic Elements
Date Deposited:	14 Apr 2021 14:24
Last Modified:	14 Apr 2021 14:30
URI:	https://shura.shu.ac.uk/id/eprint/26697

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