Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing

CARSLAW, K.S., LEE, Lindsay, REDDINGTON, C.L., PRINGLE, K.J., RAP, A., FORSTER, P.M., MANN, G.W., SPRACKLEN, D.V., WOODHOUSE, M.T., REGAYRE, L.A. and PIERCE, J.R. (2013). Large contribution of natural aerosols to uncertainty in indirect forcing. Nature, 503 (7474), 67-71.

Full text not available from this repository.
Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature12674
Link to published version:: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12674
Related URLs:

    Abstract

    The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud droplet concentrations and radiative properties is the source of one of the largest uncertainties in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial period. This uncertainty affects our ability to estimate how sensitive the climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. Here we perform a sensitivity analysis on a global model to quantify the uncertainty in cloud radiative forcing over the industrial period caused by uncertainties in aerosol emissions and processes. Our results show that 45 per cent of the variance of aerosol forcing since about 1750 arises from uncertainties in natural emissions of volcanic sulphur dioxide, marine dimethylsulphide, biogenic volatile organic carbon, biomass burning and sea spray. Only 34 per cent of the variance is associated with anthropogenic emissions. The results point to the importance of understanding pristine pre-industrial-like environments, with natural aerosols only, and suggest that improved measurements and evaluation of simulated aerosols in polluted present-day conditions will not necessarily result in commensurate reductions in the uncertainty of forcing estimates. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

    Item Type: Article
    Uncontrolled Keywords: Aerosols; Climate; Greenhouse Effect; History, 18th Century; History, 19th Century; History, 20th Century; History, 21st Century; Human Activities; Models, Theoretical; Sulfides; Sulfur Dioxide; Uncertainty; Volcanic Eruptions; Sulfides; Sulfur Dioxide; Aerosols; Uncertainty; Greenhouse Effect; Climate; Models, Theoretical; Human Activities; History, 18th Century; History, 19th Century; History, 20th Century; History, 21st Century; Volcanic Eruptions; General Science & Technology
    Identification Number: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12674
    Page Range: 67-71
    SWORD Depositor: Symplectic Elements
    Depositing User: Symplectic Elements
    Date Deposited: 14 Apr 2021 14:24
    Last Modified: 14 Apr 2021 14:30
    URI: http://shura.shu.ac.uk/id/eprint/26697

    Actions (login required)

    View Item View Item

    Downloads

    Downloads per month over past year

    View more statistics