Welfare reform in the UK 2010-16: Expectations, outcomes and local impacts

Welfare reform has been central to UK government policy since 2010. This article compares initial expectations with key outcomes by 2016. The article shows that although the financial savings to the Treasury have been large, they have been rather less than the government first anticipated, mainly because the reduction in spending on incapacity‐related benefits has proved far smaller than expected. The financial losses have also been spread highly unevenly across the country, and the evidence from a pilot study in Scotland suggests that the reforms have had little impact on levels of worklessness. The article concludes that whilst forecasting the financial savings from welfare reform is an inherently uncertain activity, the United Kingdom's reforms should be understood first and foremost as about reducing public spending in the poorest places.